Regulatory Update Dublin - September 2026 (Eurofi)

Summary

• Stock markets remained calm after the start of the conflict in Iran on February 28, 2026, with the S&P 500 gaining a maximum increase of 7% on May 10, 2026.p.5
• Rising oil prices from $60 per barrel at the start of the conflict to $110 pushed U.S. consumer price indices up to 3.5% over a three-month period.p.7
• The global government bond market reached $140.7 trillion, with $55.3 trillion issued by the United States and €10 trillion issued by Eurozone countries.p.10
• Market capitalization of dollar-backed stablecoins reached $317 billion in April 2026, with issuers holding $182 billion in U.S. Treasury bills.p.10
• Average gross public debt across advanced economies rose from around 40% of GDP in the 1980s to over 120% by 2025.p.13
• French government interest payments grew from €36.9 billion in 2019 to €66.6 billion in 2025 and are projected to reach €88.2 billion by 2027.p.24
• The Single Resolution Fund has reached approximately EUR80 billion to support bank resolution across participating European Union Member States.p.29

Key insights

1. Stock market stability relies on the baseline expectation that hostilities in Iran will resolve before the end of June 2026.p.5
2. The U.S. dollar's share in central bank reserves has declined from 72% to 58% since 1999, though no alternative replacement currency has emerged.p.10
3. Private credit expanded from $500 billion in 2010 to $1.3 trillion by the end of 2025, accompanied by covenant-lite contracts and continuation deals.p.11
4. Belgium, France, the United States, and Finland exhibit persistent primary deficits that remain incompatible with sovereign debt stabilization.p.17
5. Non-financial private sector debt in France reached 215.4% of GDP by end-2025, in contrast to deleveraging trends in Spain and Italy.p.21
6. The European Deposit Insurance Scheme remains unrealised, leaving the third pillar of the Banking Union incomplete.p.29
7. National prudential constraints and ring-fencing lock approximately EUR230 billion of high-quality liquid assets within cross-border bank subsidiaries in the EU.p.44