Stablecoin Development Pathways: A Comparative Analysis of Regulatory Logic and Market Landscape in China and the United States (OpenAlex (recherche mondiale))

Summary

• By mid-2026, the aggregate global stablecoin market capitalization reached roughly $280 billion, with dollar-pegged instruments comprising over 92% of circulating supply.p.1
• USDT and USDC together accounted for roughly 83% of the total circulating stablecoin supply by mid-2026.p.4
• China's e-CNY pilots expanded to cover more than 20 provincial-level regions with cumulative transaction value reaching near 1.2 trillion yuan by end-2025.p.4
• The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, 2025, through a bipartisan vote of 68–30 to establish a federal compliance framework for payment stablecoins.p.6
• The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. Senate induced a full-window cumulative abnormal return CAR(-30,+30) of +9.4% for dollar stablecoins.p.8

Key insights

1. The U.S. and China have taken divergent stablecoin pathways, developing a compliant private-issuance model and a sovereign digital currency model respectively.p.1
2. The divergence in national stablecoin policy is driven by differences in monetary institutions, regulatory philosophy, capital-account regimes, and international governance engagement.p.1
3. The U.S. risk governance framework relies on mandatory disclosure, 100% high-quality reserve backing, and licensed private operation.p.4
4. China's regulatory model strictly bans all private cryptocurrency and stablecoin business activities while promoting the central bank digital currency e-CNY.p.4
5. Privately issued U.S. dollar stablecoins function as a digital extension of the dollar, strengthening its dominance in global cross-border payments.p.5
6. China's strict capital account management treats private stablecoins as a potential capital-flight vulnerability, prompting a complete prohibition of private issuance.p.6
7. The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. Senate generated a statistically significant immediate reaction window CAR(-5,+5) of +4.6% for dollar stablecoins.p.8