A Settlement Currency to Finance Climate Restoration and Human Prosperity (Research Square)

Summary

• Holding carbon dioxide removal at 9.5 GtCO₂ per year after 2183 in the FaIR ensemble returns median atmospheric CO₂ to 280 ppm in 2300.p.3
• Funding carbon dioxide removal at US$200 per tonne, ending hunger, and reaching vaccine targets requires US$3.1 trillion per year.p.3
• This revenue implies an effective fee of 13 basis points on global foreign-exchange turnover of US$9.5 trillion per day.p.3
• Current deliberate carbon removal is about 2 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹, while novel methods remove approximately 1.3 MtCO₂ yr⁻¹.p.3
• Gavi's 2026–2030 funding target of US$11.9 billion equates to US$2.38 billion yr⁻¹, or 0.05% of the maintenance-period residual.p.6
• Non-participation by the United States lowers the reference envelope by 27% to US$5.07 trillion yr⁻¹ and adds 308 GtCO₂ of excess emissions through 2183.p.10

Key insights

1. Atmospheric CO₂ peaks at 435.6 ppm in 2034 and returns to 280 ppm in 2300 under the median FaIR pathway.p.4
2. Peak carbon removal of 15.2 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ sustained from 2043 to 2153 costs US$3.04 trillion yr⁻¹ at US$200 tCO₂⁻¹.p.4
3. Providing a full healthy-food allowance of US$1,800 person⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for 645 million people costs US$1.161 trillion yr⁻¹.p.5
4. With 4.6 billion people not fully covered by essential health services, a full allowance of US$2,500 covers 34% of need during maintenance.p.6
5. Regional marine cloud brightening of 40 W m⁻² opens the coral recovery window in 2057 under a 400-ppm gate.p.7
6. Carbonite uses a 20% reference stability pool of unassigned trees to cushion coin backing against falls in timber prices.p.8
7. Each decade of delayed U.S. accession adds approximately 35 GtCO₂ to the carbon removal burden.p.10