Swiss Banking Outlook 2026 (Swiss Bankers Association)

Summary

• Swiss real GDP growth is projected to reach 1,0 Prozent in 2026 and 1,4 Prozent in 2027.p.5
• Inflation in Switzerland is expected to remain low at 0,6 Prozent for both 2026 and 2027.p.5
• Commission and service business is anticipated to be the main growth driver, with 73 Prozent of respondents expecting higher earnings.p.8
• In cross-border wealth management, 35,7 Prozent of experts expect asset growth for foreign clients between 2,5 bis 5 Prozent in 2026.p.10
• Improving customer experience via digital channels is rated by 93 Prozent of respondents as an important or very important opportunity.p.11
• Successful adoption of artificial intelligence is deemed crucial for future competitiveness by 86 Prozent of financial market experts.p.14

Key insights

1. The SNB key interest rate is expected to stay at 0 Prozent through the end of 2026, with 60 Prozent expecting zero interest rates to persist through 2027.p.5
2. The Swiss unemployment rate is projected to decline slightly to 3,0 Prozent for 2026 and 2027.p.5
3. In the trading business, 40 Prozent of surveyed experts expect higher performance in 2026.p.8
4. Geopolitical tensions and Switzerland's safe-haven status continue to support international cross-border asset inflows.p.10
5. Regulatory density and discussions around stricter Too-big-to-fail rules represent the leading risk, with 60 Prozent concerned about potential revenue impacts.p.11
6. Only 27 Prozent of respondents regard the mainstreaming of crypto assets as an important growth opportunity for Swiss banks.p.11
7. A minority of 27 Prozent of experts expect the overall competitiveness of the Swiss banking center to deteriorate in the future.p.14