Report on the Impacts of Climate Change on Life and Health and Potential Emerging Risks for the Insurance and IORP Sectors (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority)
Summary
- Heatwaves represent the dominant climate-related health risk in Europe, accounting for 97% of fatalities from weather- and climate-related extremes in the EU-27 since 1980.p.4
- Heatwaves caused between 250 000 and 320 000 deaths in the European Economic Area (EEA) since 2000.p.9
- Annual European heat-related mortality is estimated above 50 000 people per year for 2022-2024 and could exceed 120,000 deaths by mid-century under insufficient adaptation scenarios.p.12
- The 2025 European record heat demonstrated a protection gap of 95%, with hardly 5 % of the EUR 43 billion in economic output losses covered by insurance.p.31
- Households financed +/- 15 % of health spending out-of-pocket on average across EU countries, but directly covered more than 30 % in Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, and Greece in 2022.p.17
Key insights
- Heatwaves generate the vast majority of climate-related mortality, making heat stress the most critical climate hazard for life and health liabilities.p.4
- Climate change creates growing liability-side risks for life and health insurers rather than being solely an asset-side concern.p.4
- Reduced cold season excess mortality in Europe is not expected to offset rising heatwave excess mortality.p.5
- Socio-economic factors and structural adaptation capacity explain a substantial share of the regional variation in heat-related mortality across Europe.p.14
- Climate-driven health impacts pose a financial risk to IORPs by challenging traditional longevity assumptions and funding dynamics.p.24
- Portfolio diversification across product types provides partial risk hedging, as heat-induced mortality increases short-term death claims but lowers longevity liabilities for annuities.p.27
- Insurers currently consider climate physical risks for life and health portfolios non-material due to data granularity constraints and complex attribution challenges.p.46
Topics and entities
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